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Surging Google Chrome Actually Behind Early Expectations

Posted May 4th, 2010 by Andrew Goodman

News is out that IE share continues to drop steadily in the (seemingly interminable) browser wars, while Google Chrome has undergone a market share growth spurt, jumping from 1.8% to 6.7% in the past 12 months.

Yet some would-be pundits (notably, the dart-throwers here at Traffick) initially expected Chrome to reach 15% by September 2010 (there is still a slim chance). After thinking it over, in comments I revised that to “7.5% to 15%” based on the attitude that consumers don’t like change in things like operating systems and browsers.

The discussions and debates in 2009 were very clear: early adopters were constantly blown away by Chrome’s speed and expected Google to push the other browsers. And when Google pushes (or punches) hard, like with GMail, often competitors fail to answer the bell. At the same time, consumers don’t always switch as fast as the early adopters would have them do.

This all seems to be playing out as expected, then. Early growth was very slow, and as a result, 6.7% share is behind schedule. But the recent growth has been rapid, and it doesn’t look like 15% share is going to be a problem for Chrome. It will just happen 6-12 months later than expected — sometime in 2011.

One Response to “Surging Google Chrome Actually Behind Early Expectations”

  1. As a browser connoisseur and passionate believer in diversifying digital assets among multiple online service providers, I resisted Chrome’s siren song of speed for years. But, finally, when Firefox became nearly unusable even on a fairly beefy laptop, I was compelled to switch to Chrome.

    Resistance is likely futile for many other Firefox users — at least until Mozilla can figure out what’s the deal with their CPU-hoarding, memory-leaking offspring.

    Before my switch, I had no idea there were so many extensions for Chrome. Nowadays, there are nearly as many Chrome extension as there are Firefox extensions, and thus fewer reasons for Firefox or even IE users not to switch.

    If Google can resist the urge to overreach, I see Chrome becoming the browser king within five years. Microsoft, despite its renewed efforts with IE, doesn’t seem to have much interest in doing what it takes to defend its title. IE 9 is getting some early praise, so who knows. One thing’s for sure: The browser wars are not nearly over!


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